This episode’s guest is Chris Hess. Chris happens to be a friend of mine from way back in my high school days. He, like me, has created an international career. And he is also based in the UK. I invited him to be a guest on the show because his professional experience and expertise is very interesting, and right up the street of this show's themes. Chris is a partner with Hesmur, a boutique consultancy focused on the insurance and wealth management sectors. He helps clients to address changing marketplaces, to digitize their businesses, and to build resilience.
Prior to this, Chris has been an entrepreneur and a senior executive. This has included stints doing business in both Russia and China, and obviously we talk about that. We also talk about taking risk, about decision-making, about startups. We talk about last year's UK mini-budget crisis, as Chris worked with many pension funds and had a unique view of the event. And if you aren't based in the UK, this was the crisis that almost took down the British economy and ended up taking down, the government of Liz Truss. We also talk about planning, the use of experts, and a lot more.
Show notes:
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In this episode, we look at decision-making in the world of deep sea diving, a topic that provides us with so many transferable lessons to other domains. It is also a very fun conversation. My guest is Gareth Lock. Gareth is the founder of The Human Diver, an organisation that improves the effectiveness of diving skills through specific human factors training.
Gareth has had a long career as a diver, starting out his career in the Royal Air Force where he spent 25 years. Over the years he realised that one thing the military does very well is teamwork – which, of course makes sense because poor decisions, bad behaviour and a lack of situational awareness can cost lives. Gareth found that the world of diving focused heavily on technical expertise – obviously important – but emphasised human behaviours and decision-making less than it should. As a result, he brings these approaches to the diving profession. Gareth has led many complex dives all over the world. He has also taken a huge amount of amazing underwater photos which you can see on his website.
This conversation is filled with wonderful insights about decision-making, working in teams, planning, the importance of constructive dissent, psychological safety, a just culture, making change happen, systems thinking and much more.
Show notes:
The Human Diver, Gareth’s website
Gareth’s book Under Pressure – Diving Deeper with Human Factors
Gareth’s documentary ‘If Only’
Steve Shorrock on Human Factors
Blog post: “Near misses: Were you lucky or good?”
The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande
Join the Club by Tina Rosenberg
Kotter’s 8 step model for leading change
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The Inbetweenisode makes a return! This one is based on this article - https://medium.com/@bcattaneo/when-do-you-cross-the-rubicon-a-useful-technique-to-frame-decisions-e4fcdf6e9da3
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In this episode, I have the honour of welcoming Grant Purdy to the show. Grant, for those of you who may not have heard of him, has a 40+ year career in helping decision-makers make great decisions. This has involved enabling great conversations, and providing sufficient certainty to decision-makers in the achievement of their intended outcomes.
Grant is also considered one of the ‘founders’ of the thing commonly referred to as ‘risk management’, having co-wrote the world’s first risk management standard in the 1990s and later, ISO 31000, the best-known risk management standard. As you will hear however, the practice of traditional risk management has turned into something that has nothing to do with decision-making. It has become, according to Grant, a ‘millstone’ around the necks of organisations and something akin to a religious belief system together with sacred artefacts and evangelists. It’s something we need to drop, he says. If you work professionally in risk management, I urge you to listen and reflect on this.
If you don’t work in traditional risk management, you are still a decision-maker. Therefore, you are the person for whom Grant and his co-author, the late Roger Estall wrote Deciding – A Guide to Even Better Decision-Making. Grant provides us with a number of insights from the book.
Sadly, Roger passed away the day before we recorded this episode. Grant opens with a lovely tribute to Roger who perhaps saved more lives than any other New Zealander through his work. Deepest condolences go out to Rogers’s family, friends, and everyone who knew and worked with him.
Show notes:
Deciding – A Guide to Even Better Decision-Making
The risk management ‘millstone’
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Today, we talk about thriving on disruption. My guest is Roger Spitz. Roger is the President of Techisential, an organisation focused on climate and foresight strategy which works with the leadership teams of some of the world’s most prominent organisations. He is also the Chair of the Disruptive Futures Institute, and education platform that teaches us how we can thrive on disruption. He spent two decades working in the world of venture capital and investment banking, advising founders and CEOs.
For the purposes of this conversation, Roger is the co-author of Thriving on Disruption – Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty. The guide is premised on the fact that disruption is a constant in our lives, and is expanding fast. It is comprehensive and very practical, with tools and techniques aimed at helping readers be more resilient and seize opportunities. It involves ‘casting aside assumptions, throwing out old playbooks, rewiring our mindset, embracing the unknown and taking agency of our own futures.’ This is a nutrient-dense conversation that covers everything from Zen Buddhism to AI.
Show notes:
The Disruptive Futures Institute
Thriving on Disruption – Essential Frameworks for Disruption and Uncertainty
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today, we have a fabulous conversation with Christian Hunt who is making his third appearance on the show. This time he joins me to talk about his excellent new book Humanising Rules – Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics and Compliance. The book is all about using practical techniques ‘that work with – rather than against – the grain of natural human decision-making’ in designing and implementing rules. In the book and in this episode, Christian challenges widely-held assumptions about managing the risks posed by people and their relationship with rules. As Christian so often aptly puts it rule-makers need to not just think about how ‘ they’d like people to behave, but how likely people are to behave.’
If you’ve not come across Christian before, he is the founder of Human Risk, a consultancy that brings behavioural science to ethics and compliance. He is also the host and producer of his own show, The Human Risk Podcast. He is always engaging and challenges our thinking. After listening to this, no matter if you are a rule-maker, rule-taker or rule-breaker (and at times, we are all of those things), you won’t ever think about rules in quite the same way again.
Show notes:
Sander Van Der Linden on All Things Risk
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today, we spend some time in the world of marketing talking about how people make choices – and how behavioural science and AI can help us make better choices. My guest is Jen Clinehens. Jen is all about making business more human and is the founder of Choice Hacking, a consultancy that approaches customer experiences with a combination of behavioural science and psychology as well as cutting-edge AI tools.
Jen has a very interesting background and worldview – she spent time as a musician and in the creative industries before working in business and later founding Choice Hacking. We spend time talking about that, about how consumers make choices and what we can learn from that, the differences between marketing and manipulation, AI, and much more.
Show notes:
Nike’s Michael Jordan ‘Failure’ ad
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today, we talk about how big things get done. A ‘big thing’ can mean a large infrastructure project, an IT project at work, or something in your personal life like a home renovation, a big adventure, or an event you’re organising. The sad truth is, the vast majority – in fact, almost – big projects end up over budget, delayed, and they don’t provide the planned benefits. This is something well-researched and backed up by data. It is the ‘Iron Law of Mega Projects’ as you will hear.
That’s the bad news.
The good news is that joining us on this episode of the podcast is Professor Bent Flyvbjerg who is the world’s leading megaproject expert. Prof. Flyvbjerg teaches at the University of Oxford and the IT University of Copenhagen. He has consulted on over 100 megaprojects costing $1 billion or more and has been knighted by the Queen of Denmark. He is the co-author of the fantastic new book How Big Things Get Done – The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project From Home Renovations to Space Exploration.
Bent joins in what I think is a fabulous conversation in which he shares:
· The Iron Law of Mega Projects;
· Why projects ‘don’t go wrong, they start wrong’;
· Why projects are not goals in and of themselves and what we can learn from legendary architect Frank Gehry;
· What the Tour de France teaches up about risk;
· What lego has to do with all this;
· Much more!
Show notes:
Robert Caro on LBJ and Robert Moses
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
In this episode, we dive into the world of geopolitical risk analysis – and in so doing, we also look at Russia and its conflict with Ukraine. On top of this, in looking at geopolitical risk, we are also be default considering decision-making under circumstances of extreme uncertainty and ambiguity. So, this is a conversation that offers numerous useful lessons applicable to all types of decisions.
My guest is Dr. Carlo Gallo. Carlo is the founder and director of Enquirisk, a geopolitical risk consultancy that provides analysis on geopolitics using a number of rigorous methods to help clients make better investment decisions. Carlo is an expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union. He has a doctorate in Russian politics from the London School of Economics and applies his expertise in helping clients address political, integrity and security risks.
This is a fabulous conversation that covers both the methodology behind great political risk analysis and how this relates to decision-making as well as the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Carlo shares insights on Russian society, why the Russian population, for the most part, is supportive of Vladimir Putin, and some considerations for the conflict with Ukraine may end.
Show notes:
Structured Analytic Techniques
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today, I am delighted to bring you my conversation with former Premier League footballer and now performance psychologist Paul McVeigh. Paul played professionally for the likes of Norwich City and Tottenham Hotspur and internationally for Northern Ireland. He competed with some of the sport’s best players and has taken this experience and developed his own methodology to performance psychology which he applies in his work with leaders and teams. He is also an author, having written The Stupid Footballer is Dead which discusses how football at an elite level is played every bit as much with the mind as it is on the pitch.
You certainly don’t need to be interested in football to get a lot out of this episode, but if you are, you will find it even more fascinating. Paul shares more about all this in this episode, including:
- · The day he began his professional career at Tottenham which also happened to coincide with the first day of World Cup-winning colleague Jurgen Klinsmann;
- · How he started to apply psychology as a professional footballer at a time when sports psychology wasn’t something very common;
- · What he learned from being on the same pitch as Cristiano Ronaldo;
- · What former Chelsea great Gianfranco Zola told him about Diego Maradona;
- · The decision to retire as a footballer to do what he does now;
- · The differences and similarities between elite footballers and high-performance leaders
- · Much more
Show notes:
Paul’s book The Stupid Footballer is Dead
Manchester United’s Class of 92
The Thought Cycle and Cognitive Behavioural Therapy
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Drop us a note: allthingsrisk@gmail.com
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
This episode is all about misinformation, which seems like it is everywhere – it’s almost like a virus. In fact, as you will hear in this fascinating conversation, that’s exactly how misinformation behaves. My guest is Dr. Sander Van Der Linden who is a Professor of Social Psychology in Society and Director of the Social Decision-Making Lab at the University of Cambridge. He has been described as Cambridge’s professor of ‘defence against the dark arts’.
Sander is the author of the fantastic new book Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity. I don’t think that after you listen to him that you will look at misinformation and social media in the same way again. This conversation is also a great reminder that we are all susceptible to misinformation.
We spend time covering Sander’s background and the origins of the book, why our brains are susceptible to misinformation – which necessarily covers conspiracy theories, how misinformation spreads and the role of social media in that, and finally, how to create a vaccine against it. Sander also shares his experiences working with big tech on this problem.
Show notes:
Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects Our Minds and How to Build Immunity
David Stillwell on Cambridge Analytica
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today, we discuss some risks to ourselves – more specifically, stress and burnout. My guest is Sarah Waylett. Sarah is a self-described recovering perfectionist and over-achiever. She spent many years in the world of high-performance management consulting. This eventually took a toll on her both physically and mentally. Ultimately, she decided to understand her perfectionist tendencies.
This led her to found her own consultancy called Dreamgarten because she saw in others the same tendencies and the same results – overwork and burnout. She developed her own method to deal with burnout using human-centred design thinking, the same techniques she used to facilitate business problem-solving. She found that this approach worked.
We get into that and a lot of other great stuff here that is highly relevant to clear thinking and decision-making. If you lead teams or want to better understand, prevent and/or recover from burnout there is a lot of great stuff in this conversation. Sarah explains her definition of burnout, its impacts on the body and on decision-making, the importance of mindfulness practices, the stress cycle, and ways to prevent and combat burnout.
Show notes:
Burnout – The Secret to Unlocking the Stress Cycle by Emily and Amelia Nagoski
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
This is Part 2 of 2 of our conversation with Sarah Davis, the first woman to have paddled the Nile from its source in Rwanda to the sea off the coast of Egypt, a 6,500+ km journey that took six months.
If you have not done so, we encourage you to listen to Part 1 first, which you can find here or wherever you get your podcasts.
In Part 2, Sarah covers the second half of her journey which includes traveling through Sudan and Egypt. She also shares a number of wonderful lessons that are applicable to any ambitious endeavour.
Show notes:
Danielle Laporte – what will you do to feel the way you want to feel?
Sir Ranulph Fiennes - Explorer
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
We have a fabulous conversation here in two parts – this is Part One. Our guest is Sarah Davis, the first woman to have paddled the Nile from its source in Rwanda to the sea off the coast of Egypt, a 6,500+ km journey that took six months. During this time, Sarah dealt with angry hippos, the threat of kidnap, white water rapids, and parasites, and she and her team even got arrested at one point.
Who is Sarah? She is a British-born Australian with a love of travel, sport, and adventure. You might think that – in order to pull of this Nile expedition – Sarah started adventuring from a very young age. That isn’t exactly true and this is one of the reasons why this adventure is so interesting. Sarah spent most of her adult life in risk and project management in the banking sector. She decided that she wanted more fulfillment and purpose in her life which is partly how the Nile expedition came about.
In so doing, she shares a number of valuable lessons that you will hear about – from the importance of purpose to planning, crisis management, to decision-making. This is an absolutely wonderful conversation. Part One covers the origins of the expedition, planning and the first half of the journey. Part Two covers the second half and a number of lessons Sarah shares.
Show notes:
Danielle Laporte – what will you do to feel the way you want to feel?
Sir Ranulph Fiennes - Explorer
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence
Today’s conversation is with someone you may have come across via a term she coined. That term is ‘gray rhino’ and that person is Michele Wucker. Michele is a strategic advisor and a best-selling author. The term ‘gray rhino’ is one she came up with to take a fresh look at how we respond to the obvious, probable and most impactful risks we face. Her book, THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore became a bestseller.
Michele has written a sequel entitled YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World. This is a book whose theme is right at the heart of many of the things we love to talk about on this show. It’s about how we as individuals can better navigate uncertainty by better understanding how our experiences and perceptions shape the way we view it. We get into that in the conversation, including terms such as ‘risk empathy’ and ‘risk fingerprint’, and so much more.
Show notes:
Michele’s company, Gray Rhino and Company
THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore
YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK: The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World.
Ipos’ Perils of Perception studies
Lloyd’s Register World risk poll
Mark Pollock and Simone George’s TED talk – “A love letter to realism in a time of grief”
Termination Shock by Neil Stephenson
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Our free course module “How to Set Up Any Decision for Success” from our upcoming course How to Make Decisions With Calm and Confidence