This is Part Two of Two with Fraser Battye of the NHS Strategy Unit. If you haven’t heard Part One, I suggest you give it a listen, although it’s not strictly necessary. This episode is a continuation of the same conversation and covers creativity, uncertainty, cognitive biases and the limits of nudges.
Show notes:
- Fraser Battye on LinkedIn
- The Strategy Unit
- Iain McGilchrist's The Master and His Emissary
- Dave Snowden
- Isaiah Berlin’s The Fox and The Hedgehog
- Philip Tetlock
- “AI and the Rise of Mediocrity” – essay in Time Magazine
- The Design Council’s Double Diamond
- Cass Sunstein
- Liberating Structures
- Bent Flyvbjerg
- Angie Hobbs
- Annie Duke_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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Today we have Part One of my two part conversation with Fraser Battye. Fraser is a Principal at the Strategy Unit of the UK National Health Service the NHS, and the Strategy Unit provides analysis and strategic change expertise. As part of that role, Fraser provides expert guidance on decision-making. And this is a two-part conversation which covers a huge number of fascinating dimensions of decision-making. In Part One, we cover :
- balancing values with ethical considerations,
- integrating the two brain hemispheres into the decision-making process
- decision options as theories to test
- AI and decision-making, and a lot more there
Show notes:
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Today, I have the pleasure of welcoming Nuno Reis to the show. I came across Nuno via his LinkedIn posts on uncertainty and in particularly around something called Bayesian Analysis or Bayesian Thinking. If you’ve never come across the term, Bayesian Analysis is the mathematical interpretation of probability. And it underpins so much of our world - and increasingly so because many AI models are built on Bayesian Thinking.
Nuno is quite critical of how Bayesian Thinking is applied – because we can never remove the human from the numbers and the models. He says that an embrace of Bayesian Thinking – useful as it is, has become an unhealthy dogma. And – that resonated with me particularly because as I looked at Nuno’s background I saw someone saying this who is a trained mathematician with a PhD in Mathematics in String Theory and did a postdoc at Oxford. He worked in the financial sector during the Global Financial Crisis where he sees parallels now in the worlds of AI and related areas.
So, I invited him to the show and we had a great conversation that covers not only the topics of Bayesian Thinking, the financial industry, but also the topic of uncertainty, lots of philosophy and running.
I hope you enjoy it and find it insightful. Here is Nuno Reis.
Show notes:
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