Today, we talk about the arc of international business in Russia over the past 30-some years. Our guest is Charles Hecker. Charles is a self-professed “Russia geek” who has written a fabulous new book entitled Zero Sum - The Arc of International Business in Russia. It largely covers the time starting from the fall of the Soviet Union to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It's utterly fascinating on so many levels. International business in Russia, as you will hear, is almost like a huge natural experiment in decision-making. You will hear about complex to nuanced decisions, bad decisions, good decisions, and downright batshit crazy decisions.
To fully understand and appreciate a topic as complex as Russia, you need to live and breathe it, and Charles has and does. He studied in Russia during the Cold War. He was a journalist there with Moscow Times in the 1990s and also led Control Risks Russia office in the country. Control Risks is a specialist risk consultancy where Charles and I were colleagues. Charles is also a great storyteller. That will come through in this conversation and it also comes through in the book which is filled with colour. In reading it, one can almost see, and smell vodka dripping from the page and imagine oneself in Russia in the nineties and the noughties. While it's impossible to go back in time and fully understand what people were thinking and feeling when they made decisions when it comes to business decision-making in Russia, Charles's account comes about as close as you can get.
Show notes:
Charles’ website - https://www.charleshecker.com/
Zero Sum - The Arc of International Business in Russia
Putin’s 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
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Today, I bring you my conversation with an absolute legend, Gary Klein. Gary is a renowned pioneer in naturalistic decision-making. He has extensively researched how experienced professionals (e.g. experienced physicians, firefighters, police officers, etc.) make decisions in high-pressure environments, relying on their intuition without extensive analysis. This led Gary to develop the “Recognition Primed Decision Model”. And if you've ever come across the PreMortem technique, Gary invented that. The PreMortem is something that helps decision-makers anticipate failures before they occur.
He's also collaborated with Nobel laureate, the late Daniel Kahneman, but did so as “collaborative adversaries” as he has a different take on cognitive biases. And you will hear more about that directly from Gary. Gary's work also inspired Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink, and so much more. He is an absolute legend. In this conversation, we talk about the role of intuition and decision-making in reducing errors and enhancing insights, which Gary has done extensive work on. Gary shares some great context and advice on the PreMortem and so much more. I think Gary's work is essential to understanding and practising quality decision-making.
Show notes:
Naturalistic Decision-Making - www.naturalisticdecisionmaking.org
Gary’s firm, Shadow Box Training: www.naturalisticdecisionmaking.org
Gary’s “Masterclass in Practical Decision-Making”
QR code to the masterclass:
Gary’s latest book, Snapshots of the Mind
Recognition-primed Decision Model
Gary’s article with Daniel Kahneman, “A Failure to Disagree”
Gary’s book Seeing What Others Don’t – The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
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This episode is a bit different. It’s a “Decision Clinic” in which Dr. Melina Moleskis and I offer some views on three “decision dilemmas” submitted to us by wonderful listeners. The format is a bit like an “ask me anything” podcast.
Enjoy!
Show notes:
Sign up for our Decision Navigators course: https://tdo04pxyq8y.typeform.com/to/Bgn3Qd5K
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